Statistical Postprocessing of the Output from Numerical Weather Prediction System
Abstract
This article is devoted to the investigation of relation between really observed meteorological parameters and the forecast of the same parameters produced by a numerical weather prediction system. A statistical correction method of the output from the model of the system is suggested which improves the forecast by coefficient of overlapping, root mean square error and Pearson's correlation.
References
T.N. Krishnamurti, and L. Bounoua, “An Introduction to Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques", Boca Raton FL US:, CRC Press, 1996.
L.M. Leslie, K. Fraedrich and T.J. Glowacki, “Forecasting the skill of a regional weather prediction model", Monthy Weather Review, vol. 117, pp. 550-557, 1989.
Hansen J.A. and K.A. Emanuel, “Forecast 4D-Var: Exploiting Model Output Statistics" Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorol. Soc. vol. 129, pp. 1255-1267, 2003.
M.P. Clark and L.E. Hay, “Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of stream flow", Journal of Hydrometeorlogical, vol. 5, pp. 15-32, 2004.
A. Kumar, P. Maini, L.S. Rathore and S.V. Singh, “Skill of statistical interpretation forecasting system during monsoon season in India", Atmospheric Science Letters, vol. 10, p.13, 2000.
D.O. Silva, F.J. Meza, and E. Varas, “Use of mesoscale model MM5 forecasts as proxies for surface meteorological and agroclimatic variables", Ciencia e Investigacion Agraria, 36 (3), pp. 369-380, 2009.
NOAA's National Weather Service. Current MOS Forecast Production, http://www.nws.noaa/mdl/synop/products.php
J.P. Dallavalle, M.C. Erickson, and J.C. Maloney, «Model output statistics (MOS) guidance for short-range projections", 20th Conference of Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Seattle, Amer. Meteor. Soc., Preprints, pp. 1-11, 2004.
C. Mazbran, S. Sandgathe, E. Kalnay, «MOS, Perfect Prog and Reanalysis", Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, pp. 658-663, 2006.
F. Schmid and A. Schmidt, «Nonparametric estimation of coefficient of overlapping-theory and empirical application", Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, vol. 50, pp. 1583-1596, 2006.
T.V. Khotsanyan, “Numerical weather prediction environment for the territory of Armenia", Mathematical Problems of Computer Science vol. 33, 83-90, 2010.
T. Gneiting, F. Balabdaoui and A.E. Raftery, “Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness", Technical Report, N 483, pp. 1-31, Department of Statistics, University of Washington, 2005.
http://www.cluster.am/wrf/stat
D.S. Wilks, T.M. Hamill, “Comparison of ensemble-MOS using GFS reforecast", Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, pp. 2380-2389, 2007.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
